Abstract of a seminar
to be given at the Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg,
August 1999

Nineteen Steps
Toward a Positive Behavioral Decision Theory

By

Ward Edwards

11466 Laurelcrest Road, Studio City, CA 91604, USA,
wedwards@mizar.usc.edu

The motivation for the talk is my feeling that we should, not only study why people make errors, but also figure out what they do when they are doing the task well. Definition of the sub-tasks of decision making, I believe, is the crucial function of normative decision theory. By my count, there are exactly nineteen of them. They are separable, studiable in isolation, and all can be done well or less well. In fact, quality of performance on each sub-task can be measured, in the tradition of mental testing. That fact has led me to the goal of developing a test of human decision making capability--a test that yields, not only an overall score, but nineteen sub-test scores. Study of how these sub--test scores behave in identifiable subject groups (e. g. schizophrenics of various types, people suffering from bipolar disorder, politicians, business decision makers) should lead us to a new theory of the higher mental processes. And the test itself should be a useful tool in a variety of applications, ranging from informed consent to executive recruiting.